View source for Intelligence Analysis 101 workshop

== Abstract ==

Intelligence Analysts collect, synthesize, and report on complex situations. Analysis is often complicated by high stakes, time pressure, and deception. During this workshop, you'll learn how to apply basic intelligence analysis techniques and to avoid common pitfalls. We'll then work as a group to analyze some current events using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique developed by the CIA.

== Full Description ==

The workshop will begin with a 20-25min. presentation of intelligence gathering and analysis techniques. You'll learn:

* Kinds of intelligence gathering, e.g., OSINT, HUMINT, SIGINT, etc.
* Overview of frameworks for synthesizing information/sensemaking
* Deep dive on the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique
* Preventing cognitive biases

=== Group Activity ===

After the introduction, we'll work as a group to analyze some current events using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique. Here are some examples of analyses:
* [https://www.opensynthesis.org/boards/54/is-tor-currently-compromised-by-the-us/ Is Tor Currently Compromised by the US?]
* [https://www.opensynthesis.org/boards/15/does-facebook-secretly-use-audio-from-users/ Does Facebook secretly use audio from users?]
* [https://www.opensynthesis.org/boards/10/what-is-the-relationship-between-wikileaks-and-russian-intelligence/  What is the relationship between WikiLeaks and Russian intelligence?]

=== Example Board ===

[[File:ACH Board Example.png]]

== Registration ==

Signup using the HOPE system: https://scheduler.hope.net/hope2020/talk/FFDC9A/

== Preparation ==

There's no prerequisites for participation.

But, to add and evaluate evidence during the activity, you'll need to complete the following steps '''before the workshop:'''
# Create an account on [https://www.opensynthesis.org/accounts/signup/ Open Synthesis]. 
# Request access to the [https://www.opensynthesis.org/teams/39/ HOPE team]

''Our email provider (SendGrid) we use for sending verification emails had an outage earlier today (7/28). It should be back up now, so please try creating an account. If people are still facing problems, we'll temporarily disable email verification: https://status.sendgrid.com/
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== Related Reading ==

=== Intelligence Analysis ===

* [https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/PsychofIntelNew.pdf Psychology of Intelligence Analysis], Richards J. Heuer, Jr.
* [https://www.amazon.com/Quantitative-Intelligence-Analysis-Simulations-Professional/dp/1442235861 Quantitative Intelligence Analysis: Applied Analytic Models, Simulations, and Games], Edward Waltz
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20161109230503/http://www.globalytica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Strategic-Foresight_Nine-Techniques.pdf Strategic Foresight: Nine Techniques for Business and Intelligence Analysis]
* [http://airpower.airforce.gov.au/APDC/media/PDF-Files/Air%20Force%20Publications/AF13-Applied-Thinking-for-Intelligence-Analysis.pdf Applied Thinking for Intelligence Analysis: A Guide for Practitioners], Australian Air Force
* [https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/Tradecraft%20Primer-apr09.pdf A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis] 

=== Measurement and Prediction ===

* [https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/1118539273/ How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business], Douglas W. Hubbard

=== Cognitive Processes and Biases ===

* [https://www.amazon.com/Mindware-Thinking-Richard-E-Nisbett/dp/0374536244 Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking],  Richard E. Nisbett
* [https://www.amazon.com/Art-Thinking-Clearly-Rolf-Dobelli/dp/0062219693/ The Art of Thinking Clearly], Rolf Dobelli
* [https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/ Thinking, Fast and Slow], Daniel Kahneman

=== Disinformation ===
* [http://verificationhandbook.com/ Verification Handbook: A definitive guide to verifying digital content for emergency coverage]
* [https://datajournalism.com/read/handbook/verification-3 Verification Handbook: For Disinformation And Media Manipulation]

== About the Presenter ==

[https://toddschiller.com/ Todd Schiller, PhD] has a decade of experience building analytics and decision support systems. He's the maintainer of [https://www.opensynthesis.org Open Synthesis], an open source web application for the analysis of competing hypotheses.