Difference between revisions of "Intelligence Analysis 101 workshop"
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Intelligence Analysts collect, synthesize, and report on complex situations. Analysis is often complicated by high stakes, time pressure, and deception. During this workshop, you'll learn how to apply basic intelligence analysis techniques and to avoid common pitfalls. We'll then work as a group to analyze some current events using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique developed by the CIA. | Intelligence Analysts collect, synthesize, and report on complex situations. Analysis is often complicated by high stakes, time pressure, and deception. During this workshop, you'll learn how to apply basic intelligence analysis techniques and to avoid common pitfalls. We'll then work as a group to analyze some current events using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique developed by the CIA. | ||
| + | |||
| + | == Full Description == | ||
| + | |||
| + | The workshop will begin with a 20-25min. presentation of intelligence gathering and analysis techniques. You'll learn: | ||
| + | |||
| + | * Kinds of intelligence gathering, e.g., OSINT, HUMINT, SIGINT, etc. | ||
| + | * Overview of frameworks for synthesizing information/sensemaking | ||
| + | * Deep dive on the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique | ||
| + | * Preventing cognitive biases | ||
| + | |||
| + | === Group Activity === | ||
| + | |||
| + | After the introduction, we'll work as a group to analyze some current events using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique. Here are some examples of analyses: | ||
| + | * [https://www.opensynthesis.org/boards/54/is-tor-currently-compromised-by-the-us/ Is Tor Currently Compromised by the US?] | ||
| + | * [https://www.opensynthesis.org/boards/15/does-facebook-secretly-use-audio-from-users/ Does Facebook secretly use audio from users?] | ||
| + | * [https://www.opensynthesis.org/boards/10/what-is-the-relationship-between-wikileaks-and-russian-intelligence/ What is the relationship between WikiLeaks and Russian intelligence?] | ||
| + | |||
| + | === Example Board === | ||
| + | |||
| + | [[File:ACH Board Example.png]] | ||
== Registration == | == Registration == | ||
| − | + | Signup using the HOPE system: https://scheduler.hope.net/hope2020/talk/FFDC9A/ | |
== Preparation == | == Preparation == | ||
| − | + | There's no prerequisites for participation. | |
| − | # Create an account on [https://www.opensynthesis.org/accounts/signup/ Open Synthesis] | + | |
| + | But, to add and evaluate evidence during the activity, you'll need to complete the following steps '''before the workshop:''' | ||
| + | # Create an account on [https://www.opensynthesis.org/accounts/signup/ Open Synthesis]. | ||
# Request access to the [https://www.opensynthesis.org/teams/39/ HOPE team] | # Request access to the [https://www.opensynthesis.org/teams/39/ HOPE team] | ||
| + | |||
| + | ''Our email provider (SendGrid) we use for sending verification emails had an outage earlier today (7/28). It should be back up now, so please try creating an account. If people are still facing problems, we'll temporarily disable email verification: https://status.sendgrid.com/ | ||
| + | '' | ||
== Related Reading == | == Related Reading == | ||
| − | + | === Intelligence Analysis === | |
* [https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/PsychofIntelNew.pdf Psychology of Intelligence Analysis], Richards J. Heuer, Jr. | * [https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/PsychofIntelNew.pdf Psychology of Intelligence Analysis], Richards J. Heuer, Jr. | ||
* [https://www.amazon.com/Quantitative-Intelligence-Analysis-Simulations-Professional/dp/1442235861 Quantitative Intelligence Analysis: Applied Analytic Models, Simulations, and Games], Edward Waltz | * [https://www.amazon.com/Quantitative-Intelligence-Analysis-Simulations-Professional/dp/1442235861 Quantitative Intelligence Analysis: Applied Analytic Models, Simulations, and Games], Edward Waltz | ||
* [https://web.archive.org/web/20161109230503/http://www.globalytica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Strategic-Foresight_Nine-Techniques.pdf Strategic Foresight: Nine Techniques for Business and Intelligence Analysis] | * [https://web.archive.org/web/20161109230503/http://www.globalytica.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Strategic-Foresight_Nine-Techniques.pdf Strategic Foresight: Nine Techniques for Business and Intelligence Analysis] | ||
| − | * [http://airpower.airforce.gov.au/APDC/media/PDF-Files/Air%20Force%20Publications/AF13-Applied-Thinking-for-Intelligence-Analysis. | + | * [http://airpower.airforce.gov.au/APDC/media/PDF-Files/Air%20Force%20Publications/AF13-Applied-Thinking-for-Intelligence-Analysis.pdf Applied Thinking for Intelligence Analysis: A Guide for Practitioners], Australian Air Force |
| + | * [https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/Tradecraft%20Primer-apr09.pdf A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis] | ||
| − | + | === Measurement and Prediction === | |
* [https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/1118539273/ How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business], Douglas W. Hubbard | * [https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/1118539273/ How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business], Douglas W. Hubbard | ||
| − | + | === Cognitive Processes and Biases === | |
* [https://www.amazon.com/Mindware-Thinking-Richard-E-Nisbett/dp/0374536244 Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking], Richard E. Nisbett | * [https://www.amazon.com/Mindware-Thinking-Richard-E-Nisbett/dp/0374536244 Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking], Richard E. Nisbett | ||
* [https://www.amazon.com/Art-Thinking-Clearly-Rolf-Dobelli/dp/0062219693/ The Art of Thinking Clearly], Rolf Dobelli | * [https://www.amazon.com/Art-Thinking-Clearly-Rolf-Dobelli/dp/0062219693/ The Art of Thinking Clearly], Rolf Dobelli | ||
* [https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/ Thinking, Fast and Slow], Daniel Kahneman | * [https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555/ Thinking, Fast and Slow], Daniel Kahneman | ||
| + | |||
| + | === Disinformation === | ||
| + | * [http://verificationhandbook.com/ Verification Handbook: A definitive guide to verifying digital content for emergency coverage] | ||
| + | * [https://datajournalism.com/read/handbook/verification-3 Verification Handbook: For Disinformation And Media Manipulation] | ||
| + | |||
| + | == About the Presenter == | ||
| + | |||
| + | [https://toddschiller.com/ Todd Schiller, PhD] has a decade of experience building analytics and decision support systems. He's the maintainer of [https://www.opensynthesis.org Open Synthesis], an open source web application for the analysis of competing hypotheses. | ||
Latest revision as of 23:24, 28 July 2020
Contents
Abstract
Intelligence Analysts collect, synthesize, and report on complex situations. Analysis is often complicated by high stakes, time pressure, and deception. During this workshop, you'll learn how to apply basic intelligence analysis techniques and to avoid common pitfalls. We'll then work as a group to analyze some current events using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique developed by the CIA.
Full Description
The workshop will begin with a 20-25min. presentation of intelligence gathering and analysis techniques. You'll learn:
- Kinds of intelligence gathering, e.g., OSINT, HUMINT, SIGINT, etc.
- Overview of frameworks for synthesizing information/sensemaking
- Deep dive on the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique
- Preventing cognitive biases
Group Activity
After the introduction, we'll work as a group to analyze some current events using the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique. Here are some examples of analyses:
- Is Tor Currently Compromised by the US?
- Does Facebook secretly use audio from users?
- What is the relationship between WikiLeaks and Russian intelligence?
Example Board
Registration
Signup using the HOPE system: https://scheduler.hope.net/hope2020/talk/FFDC9A/
Preparation
There's no prerequisites for participation.
But, to add and evaluate evidence during the activity, you'll need to complete the following steps before the workshop:
- Create an account on Open Synthesis.
- Request access to the HOPE team
Our email provider (SendGrid) we use for sending verification emails had an outage earlier today (7/28). It should be back up now, so please try creating an account. If people are still facing problems, we'll temporarily disable email verification: https://status.sendgrid.com/
Related Reading
Intelligence Analysis
- Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, Richards J. Heuer, Jr.
- Quantitative Intelligence Analysis: Applied Analytic Models, Simulations, and Games, Edward Waltz
- Strategic Foresight: Nine Techniques for Business and Intelligence Analysis
- Applied Thinking for Intelligence Analysis: A Guide for Practitioners, Australian Air Force
- A Tradecraft Primer: Structured Analytic Techniques for Improving Intelligence Analysis
Measurement and Prediction
- How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business, Douglas W. Hubbard
Cognitive Processes and Biases
- Mindware: Tools for Smart Thinking, Richard E. Nisbett
- The Art of Thinking Clearly, Rolf Dobelli
- Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman
Disinformation
- Verification Handbook: A definitive guide to verifying digital content for emergency coverage
- Verification Handbook: For Disinformation And Media Manipulation
About the Presenter
Todd Schiller, PhD has a decade of experience building analytics and decision support systems. He's the maintainer of Open Synthesis, an open source web application for the analysis of competing hypotheses.
